I have been asked to complete some climate change scenario analysis, are there any tips for where to start?
Sure. The process of scenario analysis is broken down into four main steps:
- Planning
- Execution
- Analysis
- Integration
In the planning phase, you’ll need to define what you want to achieve by setting an objective. The clearer you are, the easier the other steps become. Once you’ve decided on the objective, you need to understand which scenarios and parameters will best help you achieve the objective. For example, if the objective is to understand more about potential flash flood risks to the business under a warming climate, your analysis will more likely benefit from scenarios that have a higher occurrence of intense rainfall in regions that have poor urban drainage or have conditions where the soil is not able to rapidly absorb rain water (e.g., straight after a prolonged drought or after months of continued rain during a La Nina weather pattern).
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